Predictions for India's next decade

Irrespective of all that went wrong in the last decade for India, the growing strength of the Indian (urban) middle class has to stand out as the one trend that presents the most hope and has the maximum momentum. As long as this ‘class’ keeps the balance in favour of wealth creation as opposed to consumption, India will benefit.

In the next decade, there will be opportunities to move forward, there will be a decline in some areas and as usual we will continue to see rapid change. Before the media steps in with their sponsored hype, allow me to present my 2¢ worth of predictions for the next ten years.

1. Urbanization will continue. The burden of migration will shift from the metros to Tier II cities and we will see a spurt in infrastructure projects in these cities as well (finally!). Will rural and urban India run on two parallel tracks or will they be going in opposite directions? Going by the trend in this decade, there will be a large marginalized population in rural India that will be headed in the opposite direction. This will be the single largest challenge for all levels of government in India.
   
   
2. Regulation of Indian Media will improve. There will be legislation brought into play after all efforts at self-regulation fail. Accountability within the media will increase. The focus will be back on journalism. Distractions in the form of infotainment, psephology and advertising will reduce substantially.
    
3. A Green Party! Indians will start to recognize the impact of climate change. This enlightenment will result in direct action as well. A political party that has environment as it’s main electoral platform will win a seat or two in the Lok Sabha. In the worst case scenario, this party will take a toll on national parties by fracturing their vote back in some pockets. 
   
   
4. Intellectual Property Rights will see a major overhaul. Developing countries and poorer countries will be paying “actuals” for the transfer of technology and NOT exorbitant premiums in the name of copyrights and/or patents. This will be most true in the areas of energy, healthcare and agriculture. The West will back-track completely on GATS when they realize that they will be paying more than they will earn. In particular, this will kick-off a virtuous cycle in Africa. (i.e key ingredients for sustainable development will come together at the right place and at the right time)
   
   
5. Large Dams. The decommissioning of some of the largest dams in India will begin. There will be a realization that these dams need to be broken down into much smaller dams along the major rivers. This will be driven by an acceptance of environmental science and by a ‘real’ threat of major earthquakes. Some of the democratic people’s movements that have their roots in the impact of large dams,  may coalesce into a green-party that I referred to earlier. [The large dams debate from 1999]
   
   
6. The mobile generation will skip the PC. A large number of Indians will have their first and (addictive) taste of the Internet through the mobile phone. This leap forward in local appropriation of technology will open up many opportunities for better governance (UID will NOT be one of them). UID as a project will slip into oblivion. It may be perceived to be successful in a few urban pockets thanks to some good PR by the project manager.
   
   
7. Narayanamurthy for President? (Okay I am sticking my neck out here) The co-founder of Infosys will launch a bid for the Rashtrapathi bhavan. Whether or not he will succeed is not clear. His name will do more than just the rounds, he might even end up with a nomination.  He will be supported largely by the corporate lobby. 
   
   
8. India becomes THE exit plan in Afghanistan and Pakistan for America. But first, America will continue it’s blundering ways. The continuing loss of civilian lives will mean that America will not just be “perceived” as an enemy, but will be treated as one by non-combatants and combatants alike. In a few years, India will be first nudged and then shoved into engaging in the AfPak region. The repercussions for India will not be good. The US of course will close another failed chapter in it’s history of imperial ambitions and leave somebody else to clean up the mess. The only positive outcome of such an intervention could be a conclusive resolution to Kashmir. [A status report on Obama's current strategy from an Indian perspective].
   
   
9. If Congress wins a National election in the coming decade (60% chance that they will). Chidambaram will replace Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi will have independent charge of the remote control. This government will be packaged in populist policy but at it’s core will be a capitalist engine. This will put the poorest of the poor at risk. The government will be different because it will NOT camouflage it's complete alignment with US policies on war and neo-liberal economics.
   
   
10. Naxal violence will be mitigated and controlled through the partial nationalization of mines. Large corporate interests will still be pillaging natural resources, but there will be reparations given to local communities both in the form of cash and infrastructure. This will happen through the partial nationalization of mines. The movement for equality and tribal rights will continue to be brushed under the carpet. The violent element in the Naxal movement will be held at bay and will rear it's head when convenient to the central government. 
    
    
11. Circket in India will be in turmoil. BCCI will continue to behave like the school bully both in domestic and international cricket. Interest in the sport in other nations will be in decline as cricket becoming predictable. This decline in interest in other countries will have an impact on the fortunes of the game in India. The process has been set in motion and looks irreversible. 
    
    
12. Women’s literacy will improve by a massive 30% or more. This will not happen thanks to government action but because non-government organizations working across different areas of development will approach the issue of women’s literacy as a a panacea. The impact will be exceptionally positive.
    
    
13. India Vs China (Tortoise vs Hare). India is far less likely to implode than China. This is based on the fact that i) India's trajectory of growth is not as steep ii) Our checks & balances in the areas of finance, banking and accounting is far more transparent and robust than China's. India is more of a socialist country than China (which is the largest capitalist country in the world thanks to it being Milton Friedman's playground in the 80s). Power within India is far more distributed than it ever will be in China. 

Happy New Year!

Telangana Conundrum (Divide, divide again and rule?)

This post is about the flavor of the week. It is my take on Telangana and the argument for breaking up the larger states into smaller more efficient states. When I sat down to write this post, I was against any division of the states. The “divide, divide again and then rule” approach was not making sense and appeared colonial. However, a little bit of research has managed to partially change my opinion. I will try and present some of the data that I came across.


First, comments on what has been happening

The pro-Telangana politicos are in hot pursuit of their goal for statehood. Chidambaram issued a statement that kicks of the process of state-formation.

Going by Chidambaram’s track record on contentious issues (e.g. Operation Green Hunt) the directive to the Andhra government is probably a red herring aimed at a) diffusing a potential crisis and/or b) an effort to divide the opposition benches by throwing a bone to regional parties who have state autonomy as a part of their agenda.

I will stick my neck out to predict that in all probability, Chidambaram will “clarify” his statement in studio interviews with anchors in a few weeks. The clarification will say that the issue is first a state subject and unless the legislature passes a resolution his hands are tied. He will once again play the “state subject” card with ease.

As far as Telangana is concerned, he chose his words (as always), with great care. In the process, he created a win-win situation for a fleeting moment. The media, and all parties concerned, bit the bait hook, line and sinker.

However, his statement has set the cat amongst the pigeons in regional political circles. Many regional forces are brining back their demand for state-hood. Area that are being discussed include

• Vidarbha (Maharashtra)
• Bundelkhand (Uttar Pradesh)
• Gorkhaland (West Bengal)
• Bodoland (Assam)

Second, the crux of the debate

Two questions that are resurfacing and are being debated include-

• Is the division of state based on language the right thing to do?
• Are smaller states easier to govern and they do they tend to have better administrative efficiencies?

For starters the two questions are VERY different. The first question has political roots. Identity based on language has been a useful political platform for regional parties (e.g. MNS in Maharashtra and DMK in Tamil Nadu). I am not going to bother analysing this question. I think any discussion on these lines will be counter-productive.

The second and far more relevant question is about  administrative efficiencies. Do Small states address development priorities and administration better than a large state? Do they have less corruption?  The rest of this post is an attempt to figure out the answer.

Small states and administrative efficiencies?

• Small Assemblies
  One down side of the small state assembly (number of MLAs) is that they may be unstable. Small assemblies and the divisive nature of local politics leads to brittle governments with wafer thin majorities. Horse trading is rampant and governments may change more than once between elections. Haryana, Goa and Jharkhand are examples that come to mind.
  
  My Argument:  If I were forced off the fence, I would say that it will not necessarily help in brining about better administrative efficiencies.
  
  
• Corruption
  Will small states breed less corruption? Hard to say! Data that I found on the net did not provide any conclusive proof that small states fair much better than large states. However it is apparent that the level of corruption appears to be marginally less in the smaller states.
  My Argument- Based on available data. It appears that small states deal slightly better at dealing with corruption particularly when it relates to their poorest citizens.
  

Note - Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Uttarakhand, and Punjab are treated as “Large States” by the original report/source

• Voter Turnout
  Since we are a democracy, one good way to judge how healthy our democracy is to see what the voter turnouts looks like. Data Available in the National Election Study 2009 (courtesy EPW) seems to indicate that small states produce far better voter turnouts. This is a positive sign and an argument that works in favor of smaller states.
  
  My Argument: Electorates seem more responsible in smaller states.
  

• Literacy Rates
  One interesting indicator that should shed some light on development is literacy rates. According to the data available with the National Literacy Mission smaller states are performing much better than larger states. The area that grabs my attention is literacy rates amongst women.
  
  My Argument: Small states seem to have better literacy rates when it comes to women.  It reflects that a key government portfolio is being delivered more efficiently if the state is smaller. Can we extend this to other indicators? Maybe or maybe not. At the risk of sounding radical, literacy and women’s literacy are good enough reasons to start creating smaller states.

• Sate Per Capita Domestic Product
  Data is not readily and uniformly available on Per Capita domestic product (maybe I was looking in the wrong places). I will present two graphs based on Government of India data for 2009 (data downloaded with some difficulty).
  Source: MOSPI.gov.in [India in figures - 2009]
  
  My Argument: If this economic indicator is to be believed, smaller states are doing better economically (at least on a per capita scale). We can find case specific reasons for each small state and why they are where they are in these rankings. However, the fact remains, that citizens in small states appear to be doing better than the larger ones. Again, an argument in favor of small states. 

• Urbanization of India
  Over 28% of India now lives in its cities.By 2030 this number will be close to 40% (source: EPW Vol 48, 2009).
  It is not just the metros that are bursting at the seams. Like metros, towns and cities across the country have grown. What was a large town 50 years ago is now a sprawling city. Many of these cities have remained underdeveloped.
  My Argument: Infrastructure infusion into capital cities in new and smaller states will ease the burden on Metro cities in the country.There will be a multiplier effect around these cities that will give a better geographic spread to development.
  

Conclusion
When I began this post, I was convinced that Small states would not work well. What data I found says I may be wrong. I am confident, based on what I have read in the last two days, that most development indicators will be better in smaller states. Maybe this question deserves some serious thought. If the division of states happens based on regional developmental goals and not feudal family structures, I think we should invest in the shift.